🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."